Economic growth scenarios of the sharing economy in Italy

Economic growth scenarios of the sharing economy in Italy

sharing-economy-imageThe sharing economy is worth 3.5 billion euros and expected to grow considerably in the next ten years, according to a recent report published by Università di Pavia. The analysis, supervised by Professors Luciano Canova and Stefania Migliacca and commissioned by PHD Italia, represents the very first attempt to study the impacts and trends of the sharing economy in Italy.

Despite the lack of a worldwide agreed definition of what the sharing economy is and therefore the absence of specific measurement models to assess its economic impact, the analysis bears on the following definition given by the European Commission in its early June communication A European Agenda for the collaborative economy which the EU Council will discuss next Monday:

For the purposes of this Communication, the term “collaborative economy”7 refers to business models where activities are facilitated by collaborative platforms that create an open marketplace for the temporary usage of goods or services often provided by private individuals. The collaborative economy involves three categories of actors: (i) service providers who share assets, resources, time and/or skills — these can be private individuals offering services on an occasional basis (‘peers’) or service providers acting in their professional capacity (“professional services providers”); (ii) users of these; and (iii) intermediaries that connect — via an online platform — providers with users and that facilitate transactions between them (‘collaborative platforms’). Collaborative economy transactions generally do not involve a change of ownership and can be carried out for profit or not-for-profit.

Borrowing its methodology from systems dynamics, the study provides three different growth projections of collaborative transactions sharing economy up to 2020 and 2025.

1) Baseline scenario: given an average 1% increase of GDP, the value of the sharing economy would reach 8.8 billion euros in 2020 and 14.1 billion euros in 2025.

2) Sharing boost: given an increase in the number of users among the over 35, then the value of the sharing economy would reach 10.2 billion euros in 2020 and 19.4 billion euros in 2015.

3) Digital disruption: given an increase in the number of users in all age groups, mainly due to raising investments in digital infrastructures, then the value of the sharing economy would reach 10.5 billion euros in 2020 and 25.1 billion euros in 2015.

Researches warns about one crucial variable that could lead to the inauspicious disappearance of the sharing economy. Governments play a deciding role as through their political stances and regulations they hold the power favour or block its development. Adverse public interventions could create a bubble scenario characterized by the weakening and decline of collaborative practices and their disappearance from the Italian economy landscape.

 

Shaker: il valore economico della sharing economy in Italia” by Luciano Canova and Stefania Migliacca

 


Uno studio condotto presso l’Università di Pavia mette in luce tre diversi scenari di crescita della sharing economy in Italia e l’importanza cruciale di interventi pubblici favorevoli per il suo sviluppo.